Metals generally decline, gold price rises, U.S. crude oil surges over 13% intraday, coke gains 1.72% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM, June 13:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally fell, with SHFE copper down 0.44%, SHFE aluminum up 0.54%, SHFE zinc down 0.32%, SHFE lead up 0.44%, SHFE tin down 0.29%, and SHFE nickel down 0.12%.

In addition, the most-traded continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum closed flat at 19,425 yuan/mt, and the most-traded continuous futures contract for alumina closed flat at 2,892 yuan/mt. Lithium carbonate fell 0.59%, silicon metal fell 1.07%, and polysilicon fell 0.43%.

The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.43%, rebar down 0.8%, and HRC down 0.74%. Stainless steel rose 0.76%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.16%, and coke rose 1.72%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42 a.m., LME metals mostly fell, with LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME lead slightly down, and LME nickel slightly up. LME copper fell 0.59%, and LME tin fell 0.21%.

In precious metals, as of 11:42 a.m., COMEX gold rose 1.4%, and COMEX silver rose 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.26%, and SHFE silver rose 0.08%. Gold prices climbed and were on track for a weekly gain, as tensions in the Middle East spurred demand for safe-haven assets, while a weaker US dollar and expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the US Fed also supported gold prices. (Webstock Inc.)

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping futures rose 8.07% to 2,175.0.

As of 11:42 a.m. on June 13, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 13

Spot and Fundamentals

Zinc: In the Tianjin market, mainstream transactions for #0 zinc ingots were concluded at 22,190-22,390 yuan/mt, with Zijin transactions at 22,270-22,420 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot transactions at around 21,850-21,980 yuan/mt. Huludao reported prices at 25,670 yuan/mt. The premium for ordinary #0 zinc against the 2507 contract was around 180-300 yuan/mt, and the premium for Zijin against the 2507 contract was around 300-330 yuan/mt. The Tianjin market was trading at a discount of around 30 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestically:

The central bank conducted 202.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection was 67.5 billion yuan.

[Guangzhou: Optimizing Real Estate Policies by Fully Lifting Purchase Restrictions, Sales Restrictions, Price Caps, and Reducing Loan Down Payment Ratios and Interest Rates] The "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou (Draft for Public Comment)" is open for public comment. It mentions the orderly reduction of consumption restrictions. We will optimize real estate policies by fully lifting restrictions on home purchases, sales, and pricing, and reducing down payment ratios and interest rates for loans. This will better meet housing consumption demands. We will steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities. In 2025, we plan to initiate the renovation of over 150 old residential communities, replace over 9,000 old elevators in residential buildings, and complete fixed asset investments of RMB 100 billion in urban village renovation projects. We will promote the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing. We will continue to optimize the policies governing the use of housing provident funds, allowing contributors to apply for individual housing loans from their housing provident funds while withdrawing funds to pay for down payments on home purchases. We will further refine policies and measures for withdrawing funds from housing provident funds for rental payments.

►On June 13, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at RMB 7.1772 per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose by 0.37% to 98.22. The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained at an eight-month high last week, indicating a softening labour market. Meanwhile, the slowdown in domestic demand in the US helped limit the increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of continuing jobless claims exceeded expectations, rising to 1.956 million, the highest level in nearly four years. Meanwhile, the US PPI for May rose by 2.6% YoY, in line with expectations, compared to a 2.5% increase in April. Despite this, the rise in "core" PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and fuel categories and is closely watched by the market, slowed from the previous month. Traders now expect the US Fed to cut interest rates by 55 basis points before the end of the year, starting in September rather than the previously anticipated October.

Data:

Today, data to be released include China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for May (the exact time between June 13 and June 17 is yet to be determined), China's aggregate social financing for the year to date as of May, China's new RMB loans for the year to date as of May, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June in the US, the eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for April, the eurozone's total reserve assets for May, the final reading of Germany's annual CPI rate for May, Canada's monthly manufacturing sales growth rate for April, and Canada's monthly growth rate of new manufacturing orders for April. In addition, the National Energy Administration typically releases data on total electricity consumption around the 15th of each month.

Crude Oil:

Crude oil futures surged significantly, with US crude oil prices briefly rising over 13% to hit a new high in more than four months during trading, and Brent crude oil also reaching a new high in over four months. As of 11:42, US crude oil was up 8.99%, and Brent crude oil was up 8.91%. The sharp increase in oil prices was driven by market concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the escalation of the situation has dealt a blow to risk sentiment in the financial markets. "As we await further news and Iran's potential response, we may see a further deterioration in risk sentiment, with traders reducing their risk positions ahead of the weekend." (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►The price spread between futures contracts continues to widen, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players. Suppliers can only lower prices to sell their goods. [SMM South China Spot Copper]

►Tianjin Zinc: Downstream demand is mainly for restocking based on immediate needs, with premiums holding steady. [SMM Midday Review]

►[SMM Brief Analysis] The off-season effect is prominent, with iron ore prices fluctuating rangebound in a weak trend.

Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view.